Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from across the border, a capacity afforded by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from believing that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.
