A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
